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NAR monthly Stats


Existing-Home Sales Rise Again in February
WASHINGTON, March 23, 2007 - 

Existing-home sales rose strongly in February following a healthy gain in January, reaching the highest level since last April, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 3.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 6.69 million units in February from a downwardly revised level of 6.44 million in January, but are 3.6 percent below the 6.94 million-unit pace in February 2006.  Last month’s increase was the biggest monthly rise in three years – sales also rose 3.9 percent in March 2004.

David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said the strong gain is a bit of a surprise.  “Some of the rise in home sales may be from mild weather that brought out shoppers in December, but fundamentals have improved in the housing market and buyers see a window now with historically-low mortgage interest rates and competitive pricing by sellers,” he said.  “Even so, winter storms last month discouraged shopping, and buyers were chilled with the third coldest February on record.  These unusual weather patterns mean home sales that close in March may decline before rebounding later this spring.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 6.16 percent in the last week, down from an average of 6.29 percent in February.  The 30-year fixed was 6.22 percent in January, and 6.25 percent in February 2006.

The national median existing-home price2 for all housing types was $212,800 in February, down 1.3 percent from February 2006 when the median was $215,700.  The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.

NAR President Pat Vredevoogd Combs, from Grand Rapids, Mich., and vice president of Coldwell Banker-AJS-Schmidt, said the median home price currently is distorted.  “Over the last year, we’ve seen declining sales in many high-cost areas but rising activity in lower cost markets,” she said.  “This change in the geographic composition of sales means we aren’t getting apples-to-apples comparisons in median home prices from a year ago.”

Other indices examining sales of the same properties over time, such as the OFHEO House Price Index, have been showing price gains; however, the OFHEO index is limited to conventional financing. 

“What’s really happening is probably somewhere in between the different measures, but home prices are soft – a year ago we were still seeing bidding pressures and double-digit price growth,” Combs said. “Overall, home prices should rise slowly this year, and many buyers have an opportunity now that was only a dream during the five-year boom.”

Total housing inventory levels rose 5.9 percent at the end of February to 3.75 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.7-month supply at the current sales pace compared with a 6.6-month supply in January.  Raw inventories peaked last July at 3.86 million, and supplies topped at 7.4 months in October.

Single-family home sales increased 3.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.88 million in February from 5.67 million in January, but are 3.4 percent below the 6.09 million-unit pace in February 2006.  The median existing single-family home price was $211,100 in February, down 1.5 percent from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales jumped 5.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 810,000 units in February from a level of 769,000 in January, but are 5.2 percent below the 854,000-unit pace in February 2006.  The median existing condo price3 was $225,400 in February, up 0.5 percent from a year earlier.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast surged 14.2 percent to a level of 1.21 million in February, and are 3.4 percent higher than February 2006.  The median existing-home price in the Northeast was $265,900, down 1.4 percent from a year earlier.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales rose 3.9 percent in February to a level of 1.58 million, but are 1.9 percent below a year ago.  The median price in the Midwest was $157,000, down 1.3 percent from February 2006.

Existing-home sales in the South increased 1.6 percent to an annual sales rate of 2.58 million in February, but are 4.4 percent below February 2006.  The median price in the South was $175,900, down 2.9 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West were unchanged in February, holding at an annual pace of 1.32 million, and are 9.6 percent lower than a year ago.  The median price in the West was $337,100, up 2.2 percent from February 2006.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

# # #

1 The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months.  Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity.  For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns.  However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.

Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings.  This differs from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit.  Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month.  In addition, existing-home sales, which generally account for 85 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger sample – nearly 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.

2 The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to the seasonality in buying patterns.  Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns.  Changes in the geographic composition of sales can distort median price data.

3 Because there is a concentration of condos in high-cost metro areas, the national median condo price can be higher than the median single-family price.  In a given market area, condos typically cost less than single-family homes.

Existing-home sales for March will be released April 24.  The next Pending Home Sales Index will be on April 3 and the forecast will be revised April 11.


Cape Coral Florida Coral Lakes Close-Out SALE


Bankrupt builder agrees to sell empty houses in Cape

Cape Coral Florida Homes at bargain basement prices

By DICK HOGAN • dhogan@news-press.com • March 19, 2008

Builder and real estate investor O.J. Buigas on Tuesday purchased 116 homes in Cape Coral at a fire sale price from bankruptcy-challenged Engle Homes - now Buigas says he'll beat the prices of anyone in town.

Buigas bought the 82 houses and 34 town houses in the Cape Coral Florida Coral Lakes project from Miami-based Tousa Homes Florida LP, Engle's parent company, which filed Jan. 29 for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization.

The homes he's buying were finished but the investor buyers generally backed out because prices had fallen since they contracted on a price, he said.

"I'm focused on one thing and only one thing," Buigas said: "Will the consumers believe it's properly valued?"

Buigas is putting his money and reputation on the line to bet they will: "I think these Cape Coral homes are the bottom of the market."

The prices are low, even in today's battered Cape Coral Florida residential home market: single-family houses start at $133,000 and town houses at $86,000. They're being sold by real estate broker Denny Grimes of Denny Grimes & Co., who's also a real estate columnist for The News-Press.

Grimes has set up a separate operation, dennyspicks.com, to market the Coral Lakes homes.

On Tuesday morning, before the sale went through, Engle's Web site was advertising Coral Lakes - which has a pool, clubhouse, sports complex and 72 acres of lakes - starting at $154,900 for its smallest two-bedroom, 21/2-bath townhouse. In late 2006, prices at Coral Lakes started in the low $200,000s.

Home prices in Lee County have plummeted in the past two years: the median Realtor-assisted sale of a single-family home was $234,000 in January, off 27 percent from $322,300 in December 2005 at the height of the boom, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.

Buigas said he looked long and hard to find a situation where he could buy a substantial number of houses at a price that could clearly provide a better value than the bank foreclosure properties that are pouring onto the market.

He wouldn't comment on other similar distressed developments such as Levitt & Sons' Cascades in east Lee County. Levitt, based in Fort Lauderdale, filed for bankruptcy reorganization Nov. 9 with only 89 of a planned 570 homes complete.

But Michael Timmerman, Naples-based senior associate with Fishkind & Associates, an Orlando-based economic consulting firm, said he expects there will be more deals such as Buigas' in Lee County because "there are definitely a lot of projects right now that are going to be ripe for somebody to purchase. The infrastructure is in place in varying states of completion that have just stopped."

That's especially true, he said, as prices come down to affordable levels. "We're seeing the market begin to move."

Buigas has the advantage, Timmerman said, of being able to offer a product in better shape and with more assurances than the typical foreclosure sale. "His competition is that particular group, but if I'm a buyer, am I going to go through Denny and O.J. where there's a warranty or am I going to go to a foreclosure where it's just one person's house I'm buying?"

David Cobb, president of Engle Homes, said the deal with Buigas is good for his company as well.

"One of the things we were looking for was someone who could come in and take over an asset like this and do the right thing with it," he said. "We wanted to make sure they weren't going to turn it into a gigantic rental pool."

That's important to Engle because it will continue to own the remainder of the lots in the 700-dwelling Coral Lakes and develop them later when the market is right.

"This market's not going to stay down forever," he sad. "The long-term proposition for real estate in Southwest Florida is good."

 


Foreclosures, Short Sales and FSBOs


During the last year we have had a shake-out in the Cape Coral real estate market.  No secret there....you would have to be living on the moon to not know about it.  But there a few issues developing that are not so obvious to the casual observer of real estate activity.  Many "investors" got into real estate with little cash and big ideas....now they still have little cash and big mortgages.  The so-called sub-prime buyers did the same thing.... no money down and a hope that they could make the payments.  Unfortunately, many of the "investors" and sub-prime buyers did not figure on taxes and insurance as part of the deal.  Many of them signed up for variable rate loans at "teaser" rates which are now escalating.  OK, so where does this take us?

For the patient buyer who is looking for a deal, we can do a daily search for bank foreclosures, distressed FSBOs (For Sale By Owner) and distressed builders.  Some of the deals available are truly outrageous, but usually they take a lot of time to close. 

FSBOs:   In the case of FSBOs, it is usually a matter of digging out the truth about the deal.  If they didn't go to a Realtor to do a sale, there is often a hidden reason which can have a huge effect on the BUYER.  Sometimes there are leins (filed or unfiled).  Sometimes there are lis pendens (lawsuits about to be filed).  Sometimes there are defects in the structure or lot that a Realtor would spot.  And sometimes it is just a terrible deal that no Realtor would touch.  In any event, we try to keep track of FSBO opportunities in certain communities and if it is a good deal, we will try to offer it.

BUILDERs:   In Cape Coral and Lehigh Acres, we have more homes built by small builders than by big regional or national builders.  This is primarily due to the pre-platted and sold-out lot situation which does not suit the bigger guys.  These small builders come in all shades of grey when considering financial stability, ethics, quality of building, concern for Buyers, etc.  You get the picture.  Don't get me wrong....some of these small builders are so much better than their peers that they are truly under-appreciated.  unfortunately, in a down market, the falling tide drops all boats, as the saying goes.  So we have a lot of homes coming on the Cape Coral Real Estate Market that have to be sold at any price, just so the builder can satisfy the bank line of credit.

FORECLOSURES:   We all have seen the headlines about foreclosures and bank reposessions.  OK, so who buys these homes?  Used to be that big investors bought up most anything that was available and they had a method of re-habbing the house and getting it ready for either rental or re-sale.  Big money investments, but also very high returns to the investors.  What we are seeing now, in this uncertain Cape Coral BUYERS MARKET is that the big investors had to pull back for two reasons:  First of all, bank money is not so readily available for this purpose, due to new restrictions from the Fed.  Secondly, rents are down and re-sales take longer.  So this leaves a lot of foreclosure sales to us small guys.  Say a person paid cash for a lot and then built a house which is now under foreclosure.....now the bank wants to get it's money out of the deal.  So even if the owner did  pay an outrageous price for the construction of the home, the price should be pretty attractive.  There are many Cape Coral Florida deals available which are either in foreclosure or in "pre-foreclosure".  The latter term just means that the bank has filed the necessary paperwork to get the foreclosure ball rolling and the owner has a couple of months to sell it or lose it.  Depending upon the owners attitude, they may still be holding out for some cash or they may just try to clear their credit by unloading the place for the mortgage balance.  Once foreclosure is complete, the property is called a "REO", for "Real Estate Owned (by the bank)".  Now the bank has to move it quick, and things happen fast.  Cash Offers are KING!  Another consideration....very few foreclosure homes are in pristine condition.  Expect to pay as much as 10% of the purchase price for re-hab work.  Every deal has to be looked at closely to make sure that what you see is what you get.  That brings us to another twist in the road........

SHORT SALES:   This is one of the unique little events that most markets only see once in every thirty years or so.  A short sale is a deal where the bank is willing to take less than the outstanding mortgage balance just to get out from under the gone-bad loan.  Every deal is different, but usually the banks are slow and deliberate.  This means that if you make an offer (and post a cash deposit) the bank may not respond for several weeks.  And when they do, it may end up being a reiteration of the original offering price.  On the other hand, there is such a thing as a motivated bank.  Keep in mind that the owner usually still has a vested interest in the deal and the owner may construct obstacles that prevent the short sale from happening until the foreclosure process is concluded.  In a short sale, the previous owner is usually still stuck with the shortfall on the mortgage, at least in a legal sense.  As a practical matter, the bank will probably write it off after a few attempts to collect.  Because many of these homes have been neglected for months and months while the owner struggled to stay afloat, expect some substantial re-hab work on the home.  If you can do the work yourself, this leverages your equity in the home by quite a bit.  Even if you need a licensed contractor to do the work, it is usually a good deal, because you are buying a home with limited market appeal in it's run-down condition.  Hey..some paint, new cabinet doors and floor tiles are relatively cheap, but make the house look like new.  If you are willing to be extremely patient, there are some truly remarkable deals available on Cape Coral Short Sales.  We have found that these situations often take months for a successful conclusion, so don't go this route unless you have lots of time to negotiate.

Call us now for a list of Cape Coral Foreclosure Homes and Lots.  We have Cape Coral Waterfront Homes and Lots, Cape Coral Golf Course Homes, Cape Coral Lots, Cape Coral Homes, Lehigh Acres Lots and commercial properties in both areas.


Jim Gibson Real Estate Specialities


SW Florida Real Estate Specialities:

Cape Coral Homes
Cape Coral Condos
Cape Coral Waterfront Homes and Lots
Cape Coral Golf Course Homes
SW Lehigh Acres Lots
Tuckers Grade Commercial Lots


NY Times reports


Link to the NY Times Real Estate Section:

http://www.nytimes.com/pages/realestate/index.html

Recent Article:

Rescues for Homeowners in Debt Weighed....

Published: February 22, 2008

WASHINGTON — Prodded in part by some of the nation’s biggest banks, the Bush administration and Congress are considering costly new proposals for the government to rescue hundreds of thousands of homeowners whose mortgages are higher than the value of their houses.

Stuart Breakstone, a lawyer in Memphis, and his wife, Lori, owe about $670,000 on their home.

Not since the Depression has a larger share of Americans owed more on their homes than they are worth. With the collapse of the housing boom, nearly 8.8 million homeowners, or 10.3 percent of the total, are underwater. That is more than double the percentage just a year ago, according to a new estimate of the damage by Moody’s Economy.com.

Administration officials say they still oppose any taxpayer bailout for either people who borrowed more than they could afford or banks that made foolish loans during the height of the speculative bubble in housing.

But with the current efforts to arrest the housing collapse so far bearing little fruit, Washington is being forced to explore new ideas, among them the idea of a federal mortgage guarantee for troubled borrowers.

And policy makers are listening to proposals from industry and community groups to use government funds to purchase and refinance billions of dollars in mortgages now in danger of default.

Many owners are only gradually becoming aware that their homes would sell for less than the debt against them — a phenomenon, said Richard T. Curtin, director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, that is “beginning to weigh on people, making them uncertain and nervous about the future.”

That nervousness is evident across the country, particularly in places like Memphis, a city of nearly 1.3 million people where falling home prices and negative equity are new experiences.

The housing slumps of the mid-1970s and late 1980s were confined to the coasts. The current bust, while leaving some cities relatively unscathed, has cut a far wider path and it comes just when home debt is at its highest level since World War II.

For Stuart B. Breakstone, the problem hit home when he was forced to come to the closing on the sale of his eight-year-old custom-built house with a check for $65,000. The money, out of his own pocket, was to pay the difference between what he still owed on the mortgage for his home and the lower selling price.

Mr. Breakstone, a 42-year-old lawyer, and his wife, Lori, chief of customs agents at Memphis International Airport — who together earn more than $250,000 a year — managed to extricate themselves by paying off the mortgage. But millions of others are trapped in their homes. They have jobs, make their mortgage payments on time, but cannot raise enough cash to cover the shortfall.

Some eventually default, surrendering to foreclosure. But the vast majority — embedded in their communities, their children in public schools, their reputations at stake — wait nervously in hope that prices will bottom and rise once again, eliminating their negative equity and restoring their freedom to sell or refinance.

“People can’t believe this is happening to them,” said Robert Moulton, president of the Americana Mortgage Group in Manhasset, N.Y.

In Washington, it will be difficult to engineer a bailout similar to the one for savings and loan companies in the early 1990s, because Democrats and Republicans alike cringe at the very word bailout and fear a backlash by people who never became overextended.

But with millions of homeowners already underwater and the prospect that millions more may face the same situation, Democrats and Republicans alike are scrambling for ideas to keep people from simply walking away from their homes and to help those struggling to pay their bills.

Bank of America, which is in the process of acquiring Countrywide Financial and has potentially huge exposure, has circulated a proposal to create a new federal agency that would buy vast quantities of delinquent mortgages at a deep discount and replace them with fixed-rate federally guaranteed loans.

The bank warned that tightening credit conditions were leading to “escalating levels of delinquency and default among borrowers” and “an unprecedented number” of homes that would enter foreclosure.

Administration officials have given the Bank of America plan a cold reception. But the idea is similar to one proposed by Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Democrat of Connecticut and chairman of the Senate Banking Committee.

The Federal Housing Administration, meanwhile, is examining ways to expand its new insurance program, known as FHA Secure, to help people replace their costly subprime mortgages with federally guaranteed fixed-rate mortgages.

Mortgage industry executives have complained that the F.H.A.’s eligibility requirements are so restrictive that the new program has helped only a trickle.

Credit Suisse executives said they have held lengthy meetings with F.H.A. officials and have urged the agency to relax rules that currently disqualify many borrowers.

One idea, company officials said, was to allow borrowers who had simply made six payments during the course of their mortgage to qualify.

Representative Barney Frank, Democrat of Massachusetts and chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, has ordered his staff to come up with options for a broader rescue bill. An aide to Mr. Frank said his bill would, among other things, allow the government to buy up at least some troubled mortgages.

A more modest plan is being developed by John M. Reich, director of the Office of Thrift Supervision, the agency that regulates savings and loan companies. His plan, still in rough form, would create a voluntary system under which mortgage lenders would reduce debt and monthly payments to reflect the diminished sales value of a home.

It would take the remainder of the mortgage as a “negative amortization certificate,” a lien that the investor could recoup if the house were later sold for its original mortgage value or higher.

In an interview, Mr. Reich said he hoped that most of the old mortgages would be replaced by cheaper mortgages insured through the F.H.A.

“It isn’t a bailout,” Mr. Reich said. “It is a market-driven solution.”

For Americans caught in a mortgage trap and owing more on a home than it would sell for, consumer spending and confidence are the most immediate casualties, Mr. Curtin reports. But the damage goes deeper.

People cannot move easily to jobs in other cities if they have to sell their homes at a loss. The $168 billion federal stimulus package is likely to be less effective than intended because many homeowners may simply use their government checks to pay down their debts.

Housing prices in Memphis fell by 2.5 percent last year, only the second decline since records began to be kept in 1968, and by far the largest dip, according to Chandler Reports, which gathers this data for Greater Memphis.

The Memphis metropolitan area highlights the larger national trend, with the average first-mortgage debt, at $153,764, edging above the average home price, $152,815, for the first time. And that does not count refinancing and home equity loans, as well as closing costs.

Collie Tuttle, in her early 60s, is caught in this bind. Four years ago, she purchased a newly built four-bedroom three-bathroom house in the Memphis outer suburb of Olive Branch, Miss., for $270,000. She put nothing down, relying on her six-figure income from selling furniture to pay down the mortgage, reducing it to $248,000.

But then she lost her job, and in her next one — also selling furniture, but at lower pay — she is being forced to choose between her home and the rest of her life.

“It was a big mistake on my part to buy this house,” she said. Divorced, with two grown sons, she rattles around in it alone. She had thought the house would add to her wealth.

But now, to sell it for the $269,000 a potential buyer was recently willing to pay, “I would have to come up with $6,000 from my pocket,” Ms. Tuttle said, explaining that she cannot afford to invade her meager retirement account. “All I’m asking is for enough so that I come out even.”

Her house payments and utilities come to nearly $2,400 a month. That is affordable, she said, on her present income. But very little is left over to replace her 11-year-old car, to travel, to pay down her credit card debt, or even to buy new clothes.

“I’m stuck,” she said. “I’ve tried everything and I can’t get rid of this house.”

The reluctance to sell at a loss helps to explain why the number of homes listed for sale in the Memphis area has climbed to more than 13,000 from 9,000 a year ago.

Jane and Kevin Naus, in their mid-40s, have had their home on the market since last May; their attempts to sell for a price that covers their debts are skewing their lives.

Mr. Naus took a job in Greenville, N.C., last March, at a local bank. His wife stayed behind, putting their house up for sale, just a month before prices began to unravel.

But there were no offers at the $239,000 the couple asked for their four-bedroom brick house on a one-acre corner lot, so they gradually cut the price to $220,000, barely enough to cover the $192,000 in mortgage debt and an additional $22,000 in closing costs and broker’s fees. It still did not sell.

Mr. Naus says prices are under downward pressure because of competition from the auctioning of foreclosed homes at bargain prices. There were 5,714 foreclosures in Memphis in 2007. “In our neighborhood alone,” Mr. Naus said, “five houses were sold last September and October, and four of the five were foreclosures.”

Mrs. Naus joined her husband in Greenville in December but he lost his job in January, when his division was shut down. The couple decided to stay in Greenville, to be near the family of Mrs. Naus, who has multiple sclerosis and no longer works.

Her $1,800-a-month in disability pay, however, falls short of the $1,400 in monthly payments on the Memphis house and the $700 in rent for an apartment in Greenville. The Nauses make up the difference with his severance pay, and occasional dips into their savings, which have fallen below $100,000.

“We don’t want to lose the house or cut the price,” Mrs. Naus said, “and end up owing money.”

“Basically,” she added, “we are praying that the house sells before my husband’s severance runs out.”

The Breakstones are similarly in danger of sinking, despite their high income. After forking over $65,000 on the house they just sold, they are struggling with $670,000 in debt on their present, larger home — perhaps more than the house itself is worth.

The Breakstones, each previously divorced, married in 2006, bringing three children to their union. They needed a bigger house than the one Mr. Breakstone had built.

Mr. Breakstone thought that he could sell his other home quickly, but it sat on the market for 17 months and finally brought only $170,000. He covered the shortfall by borrowing against his present home — bringing it closer to being underwater, too.

Now the Breakstones are saddled with $4,000 a month in house payments, and $14,000 more in fixed outlays, including child support, car leases, taxes, consumer debt and utilities, using up the bulk of their income.

“I used to think,” Mr. Breakstone said, “that I would pay the piper later and enjoy life now. I’ve totally reversed that view.”


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